Weekly Update

June 9, 2023 The great funding has started. The US Treasury is rebuilding the Treasury General Account (TGA, The checking account at the Fed) by some estimates as much as $1 trillion. So where is that money going to come from, what is the potential impact and are there any opportunities? This

Jun 2, 2023 After all the rhetoric, all the hand wringing and all the sound bites, the House and the Senate passed the debt ceiling suspension. Just a commentary on the voting: The final tally for the House vote was 314 to 117. The tally for the Senate vote was 63 to

May 8, 2023 We are changing things up this week. We issued a full analysis of the debt ceiling, how it came to be and potential outcomes. You can find it at: https://www.ustreasuryetf.com or Click Here to get the PDF directly. We continue to encourage advisors, clients and partners to

April 21, 2023 Markets have a lot to think about. There are concerns about inflation, interest rates, the economy and the market itself, to name a few. But, for the most part, we don’t fully control any of those things, we can affect them, but not control them. That’s why it’s frustrating that

April 14, 2023 This week, the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index were released. The results were not bad. Unfortunately, they were not great. They showed there is still more work for the Fed to do before they can think about a Terminal Rate.  The CPI ex-Food and Energy report showed some sectors with easing

April 7, 2023 Is inflation tamed? Are the banks going bust? Are we in for a hard landing? Those are the questions of the moment. After this week and next we should have more clarity. With the ISM, JOLTS, and Jobs reports we got some of the answers, with the CPI, PPI and Retail Sales

March 31, 2023 Finally, the Fed’s historic rate increases have broken something in the economy (We did say they would, several times). You could almost hear the sigh of relief from Washington. A second sigh was heard after the markets calmed this week, and no more banks failed, here or in Europe. The

March 17, 2023 The market was a rollercoaster the last ten days, in particular the last week. On March 8th the 2-Year US Treasury yield was at 5.07%. By the 13th the yield sank (prices rose) to 3.98%. The note then proceeded to swing by 15-30 bps each day this week! Banking industry revelations,

March 13, 2023 Over the weekend, Silicon Value Bank (SIVB) and Signature Bank New York - SBNY were seized by regulators and First Republic Bank (FRC) taped additional liquidity. The Fed and the market listened to our post and took drastic action to stop the run on the banking system. This

March 10, 2023 Yesterday SVB Financial (SVB) parent company of Silicon Valley Bank announced they are doing a significant capital raise to cover losses from their portfolio of… Mortgage backed and Treasury Bonds. SVB stock dropped 60%, bonds and preferred issues were down significantly and Moody’s announced a downgrade of the