Weekly Update

February 24, 2023 Sometimes markets can be clear, and you can see direction for as far as the eye can see. Other times, the vision is hazy, cloudy, or even stormy. Uncertain times make us long for clarity. We regularly run through an exercise to identify the source of the uncertainty

February 17, 2023 Markets rarely ever move in a straight line. Neither does inflation or the economy. And that is what we found in the last couple of weeks. After the strong employment report (that many discounted), we had more reports on Retail Sales, the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index. All of these important reports showed: a

January 24, 2023 Take a look at the yield curve chart below. The gold line is the curve on October 24, 2022 (The day the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury hit its most recent high), the green line is January 18, 2023. Since that point in October, the curve has twisted

January 13, 2023 Investing in fixed income is all about hierarchy. At the top are US Treasuries. They are the safest, most liquid fixed income investments in the market. Every other fixed income security trades off where the corresponding US Treasury issue is trading. That is for good reason, if you can buy a

January 6, 2023 Fixed income ended 2022 on a negative note. With the October and November CPI prints showing disinflation, the markets anticipated a more dovish Fed. However, the Chairman was resolute, and bond markets dropped as yields rose. So where do we stand after improving inflation reads in Europe and the US?

Written by Sarah Conwell, Portfolio Manager Headlines of the Week Biden signs temporary funding bill to prevent government shutdownSen. Warren calls Fed Chair Powell a ‘dangerous man,’ says she will oppose his renominationChina Hidden Local Government Debt Is Half of GDP, Goldman SaysTwo Fed officials depart amid scrutiny over investment

Written by Sarah Conwell, Portfolio Manager Headlines of the Week Schumer sets Monday showdown on debt ceiling-government funding billEvergrande stays silent on its $83 million dollar bond interest payment, leaving investors in limbo The US Treasury yield curve steepened in the week, with the lion’s share of the long-term Treasury

Written by Peter Baden, CFA, Chief Investment Officer Headlines of the Week Social Security COLI Increases, largest in 40 yearsTapering on Track Taper now or Taper Later? That is the question on the markets mind. Analyzing the various economic tea leaves, the Fed could easily justify starting the Taper now or

Written by Sarah Conwell, Portfolio Manager Headlines of the Week Where Ida stands among the worst hurricanes to hit LouisianaJoe Manchin says he will oppose a $3.5 trillion budget bill The US Treasury yield curve barely budged in the week, even when considering the increase in long-term yields that materialized

Written by Sarah Conwell, Portfolio Manager Headlines of the Week Watch Fed Chair Powell deliver his key Jackson Hole economic speech liveAfghanistan Death Toll Climbs As Pentagon Clarifies 1 Bomber Was Involved In AttackTropical Storm Ida Is Strengthening and Forecast To Slam Gulf Coast As A Major Hurricane Sunday The